MBS Weekly Market Commentary Week Ending 11/13/2020

The 10-year Treasury yield rose to 0 .98% to begin last week, following the announcement of Biden’s victory. However, uncertainty continues to plague markets due to the absence of a standard concession and continued accusations of fraudulent voting. The uncertainty caused the 10-year to retreat to 0.89% by Friday. The spread between the 10-year Treasury to the 5/10-year blend has tightened 3bps to +72.

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Mortgage applications decreased 0.5 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the MBA Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending November 6, 2020. The Refinance Index increased 1 percent from the previous week and was 67 percent higher than the same week one year ago. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 3 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index decreased 5 percent compared with the previous week and was 16 percent higher than the same week one year ago.

“Mortgage application activity was mixed last week, despite the 30-year fixed rate decreasing to 2.98 percent – an all-time MBA survey low. The refinance index climbed to its highest level since August, led by a 1.5 percent increase in conventional refinances,” said Joel Kan, MBA’s Associate Vice President of Economic and Industry Forecasting. “The purchase market continued its recent slump, with the index decreasing for the sixth time in seven weeks to its lowest level since May 2020. Homebuyer demand is still strong overall, and activity was up 16.5 percent from a year ago. However, inadequate housing supply is putting upward pressure on home prices and is impacting affordability – especially for first-time buyers and lower-income buyers. The trend in larger average loan application sizes and growth in loan amounts points to the continued rise in home prices, as well as the strength in the upper end of the market.” The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances decreased to a survey low of 2.98 percent from 3.01 percent, with points decreasing to 0.35 from  0.38 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent loan-to-value ratio (LTV) loans.

The Mortgage Credit Availability index rose 2.3% in October, just its second monthly increase this year, the Mortgage Bankers Association said in a statement. September saw the index drop to its lowest in over six years. The index is down 34% compared with the same time in 2019. Click to enlarge Cumulative weekly performance of MBS – relative to Treasuries – was thoroughly mixed last week. Lower-coupon Fannie 30-years underperformed by 6 ticks while higher coupons beat by 2-5 ticks. Lower-coupon Ginnies outperformed by 5-7 ticks and higher coupons were relatively flat. Fannie 15s were flat on the lower coupons and 6-10 ticks better than the 5-year Treasury on the higher coupons.
The Federal Reserve will target up to $65.4b MBS from Nov. 16 to Nov. 30. Last cycle saw it target
$61.2b. The Fed’s aggregate mortgage buying Friday was $4.2b, compared with the previous session’s $5.3b, according to New York Fed data. The most heavily purchased was the 30-year UMBS 2%, for December settle, with $1.9b.

Additionally, the FHFA said in a statement that Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac will extend several loan origination flexibilities relative to Covid-19 by a month to December 31st. The flexibilities include alternative appraisals on purchase and rate term refinance loans, and alternative methods for documenting income and verifying employment before loan closing Key events this week:

  • NAHB housing market index, Class C
  • Wednesday: MBA mortgage applications, building permits, housing starts
  • Friday: Existing home sales

10-Year Treasury Yield Curve

Compare this chart with the mortgage rates chart to see how the 10-year treasury and mortgage rates are correlated. Read more below to learn how mortgage rates are tied to the 10 year treasury yield. View raw data on U.S. Department of the Treasury website.

 

Mortgage Rates Today

The current MBS daily rates are shown below in this chart for 5/1 Yr ARM, Jumbo 30 Yr, FHA 30 Yr, 15 Yr Fixed, 30 Yr Fixed. Sign up for our MBS Market Commentary to receive daily mortgage news in your inbox.

About the Author

Robbie Chrisman, Head of Content, MCT

Robbie started his mortgage industry career with internships during high school and college at Peoples National Bank in Colorado, and RPM & Bay Equity in the San Francisco Bay Area. After graduating from The University of Texas at Austin with a degree in Finance in 2014, he went to work at SoFi, where he rose to Director, Capital Markets assisting in the creation of SoFi’s residential mortgage division before leaving to work for TMS in Austin, Texas. From there, he went to work for FinTech startup Riivos in San Francisco and now is the Head of Content at Mortgage Capital Trading (MCT) in San Diego.

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MBS Weekly Market Commentary Week Ending 1/27/23

Even with the most aggressive pace of rate hikes in over a generation during the past year, recent data suggests that there’s still a path to a “soft landing” for the Federal Reserve. The U.S. economy posted the kind of mild slowdown in the last quarter of 2022 that the Fed wants to see as it attempts to tame inflation without choking off growth. Gross domestic product beat expectations to rise at a 2.9% annualized pace, down from 3.2% in the third quarter and a long way from a recession.

MBS Weekly Market Commentary Week Ending 1/20/23

Have you heard? Inflation was so 2022. All jokes aside, after we learned last week that U.S. inflation cooled for the sixth consecutive month (the consumer price index dropped 0.1% in December compared to the month prior), expectations are now that the Federal Reserve is likely to downshift rate hikes to 25 BPS going forward, beginning at next month’s FOMC meeting.

MBS Weekly Market Commentary Week Ending 1/13/23

Pay attention to the bond market rather than the Fed. That’s what I’m hearing as we learned this week that inflation continued to ease in December, though much focus was also on Wells’ exit from the correspondent space and its ramifications. The headline CPI (-0.1% month-over-month, +6.5% year-over-year) posted the slowest inflation rate in more than a year and core inflation (+5.7% year-over-year), which excludes food and energy, also posted the smallest advance in a year.

MBS Weekly Market Commentary Week Ending 1/6/23

While it’s back to business as usual, it was a fairly quiet week as we settled into the new year. Fast inflation and high interest rates dominated the narrative and upended markets across the world last year. When the dust settled, 10-year Treasuries were 200+ BPS higher than the start of the year, the curve inverted in a bearish fashion faster and farther than ever, implied volume spiked, and mortgage spreads were pushed from stubbornly rich to suddenly cheap. The result was an entire trade-able universe moving out of the money, originations grinding to a halt, and duration becoming a function of illiquid trade flows.

MBS Weekly Market Commentary Week Ending 12/23/22

MCT would like to wish everyone a Merry Christmas and Happy Holidays. Talk to close the year has been dominated by the Federal Reserve’s most aggressive policy tightening in four decades and its impact on the economy, and for us the residential housing market.