MBS Weekly Market Commentary Week Ending 1/3/20

The targeted killing of a key Iranian general put a stop to the bearish steepening that prevailed through much of December. Friday’s rally pushed the yield on the 10-year note to its lowest level in a month, closing at 1.78% after printing as high as 1.93% over the holiday period. The yield curve (i.e., 2-10s) ended the week about 3 basis points flatter at +26 after reaching as high as +34 on New Year’s Eve, its steepest level since the summer of 2018.

*The MBS Weekly Market Profile Report corresponds to the commentary below.*

While MBS had been performing well over the previous few weeks, Friday’s bond rally left the sector struggling relative to Treasuries. 30-year Fannies basically tracked their 10-year hedge ratios over the last 5 sessions after lagging by 5-6 ticks on Friday, duration-adjusted, while Ginnies had an even rougher time, with a cumulative 5-day performance 3-4 ticks behind 10s. The Fannie 30-year current coupon spread over interpolated Treasuries widened by about 2 basis points on the week, while 30-year Ginnies closed about 4 bps wider. Coupon swaps were mostly narrower, while Ginnie/UM30 spreads also contracted by as much as 4/32s. MBS dollar rolls remain fairly cheap, with only lower-coupon Ginnie IIs rolling special while fuller coupon UM30s and Ginnie IIs continue to roll at negative drops, reflecting their high dollar prices and fears of fast prepayment speeds.

A review of recent data suggests that primary/secondary spreads, after widening in the first half of 2019, have trended tighter over the last few months. The accompanying chart indicates that the spread of the Freddie Mac Survey rate over the Fannie Mae 60-day commitment rate (a rough estimate of the “yield” on mortgage loans purchased by Fannie) has narrowed by roughly 10 basis points since peaking over the summer.

This spread is a reliable proxy for the profitability of mortgage lending, and its tightness for much of 2018 reflected the margin compression experienced by lenders over that period. While the current spread remains above its late-2018 lows, the recent tightening reflects increased competition resulting from the 25% decline in refinancing applications since their peak over the summer.

About the Author: Bill Berliner

As Director of Analytics, Bill Berliner is tasked with developing new products and services, enhancing existing solutions, and helping to expand MCT’s footprint as the preeminent industry-leader in secondary marketing capabilities for lenders.

Mr. Berliner boasts more than 30 years of experience in a variety of areas within secondary marketing. He is a seasoned financial professional with extensive knowledge working with fixed income trading and structuring, research and analysis, risk management, and esoteric asset valuation.

Mr. Berliner has also written extensively on mortgages, MBS, and the capital markets. He is the co-author, with Frank Fabozzi and Anand Bhattacharya, of Mortgage-Backed Securities: Products, Structuring, and Analytical Techniques, which was named one of the top ten finance texts in 2007 by RiskBooks. He wrote and edited chapters for The Handbook of Mortgage-Backed Securities, The Handbook of Fixed-Income Securities, Securities Finance, and The Encyclopedia of Financial Models. In addition, Mr. Berliner co-authored papers published in The Journal of Structured Finance and American Securitization. He also wrote the monthly “In My View” column for Asset Securitization Report from 2008-2012.

10-Year Treasury Yield Curve

Compare this chart with the mortgage rates chart to see how the 10-year treasury and mortgage rates are correlated. Read more below to learn how mortgage rates are tied to the 10 year treasury yield. View raw data on U.S. Department of the Treasury website.

 

Mortgage Rates Today

The current MBS daily rates are shown below in this chart for 5/1 Yr ARM, Jumbo 30 Yr, FHA 30 Yr, 15 Yr Fixed, 30 Yr Fixed. Sign up for our MBS Market Commentary to receive daily mortgage news in your inbox.

About the Author

Robbie Chrisman, Head of Content, MCT

Robbie started his mortgage industry career with internships during high school and college at Peoples National Bank in Colorado, and RPM & Bay Equity in the San Francisco Bay Area. After graduating from The University of Texas at Austin with a degree in Finance in 2014, he went to work at SoFi, where he rose to Director, Capital Markets assisting in the creation of SoFi’s residential mortgage division before leaving to work for TMS in Austin, Texas. From there, he went to work for FinTech startup Riivos in San Francisco and now is the Head of Content at Mortgage Capital Trading (MCT) in San Diego.

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Previous Weekly Market Reviews by Mortgage Capital Trading (MCT)

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MBS Weekly Market Commentary Week Ending 1/27/23

Even with the most aggressive pace of rate hikes in over a generation during the past year, recent data suggests that there’s still a path to a “soft landing” for the Federal Reserve. The U.S. economy posted the kind of mild slowdown in the last quarter of 2022 that the Fed wants to see as it attempts to tame inflation without choking off growth. Gross domestic product beat expectations to rise at a 2.9% annualized pace, down from 3.2% in the third quarter and a long way from a recession.

MBS Weekly Market Commentary Week Ending 1/20/23

Have you heard? Inflation was so 2022. All jokes aside, after we learned last week that U.S. inflation cooled for the sixth consecutive month (the consumer price index dropped 0.1% in December compared to the month prior), expectations are now that the Federal Reserve is likely to downshift rate hikes to 25 BPS going forward, beginning at next month’s FOMC meeting.

MBS Weekly Market Commentary Week Ending 1/13/23

Pay attention to the bond market rather than the Fed. That’s what I’m hearing as we learned this week that inflation continued to ease in December, though much focus was also on Wells’ exit from the correspondent space and its ramifications. The headline CPI (-0.1% month-over-month, +6.5% year-over-year) posted the slowest inflation rate in more than a year and core inflation (+5.7% year-over-year), which excludes food and energy, also posted the smallest advance in a year.

MBS Weekly Market Commentary Week Ending 1/6/23

While it’s back to business as usual, it was a fairly quiet week as we settled into the new year. Fast inflation and high interest rates dominated the narrative and upended markets across the world last year. When the dust settled, 10-year Treasuries were 200+ BPS higher than the start of the year, the curve inverted in a bearish fashion faster and farther than ever, implied volume spiked, and mortgage spreads were pushed from stubbornly rich to suddenly cheap. The result was an entire trade-able universe moving out of the money, originations grinding to a halt, and duration becoming a function of illiquid trade flows.

MBS Weekly Market Commentary Week Ending 12/23/22

MCT would like to wish everyone a Merry Christmas and Happy Holidays. Talk to close the year has been dominated by the Federal Reserve’s most aggressive policy tightening in four decades and its impact on the economy, and for us the residential housing market.