MBS Weekly Market Commentary Week Ending 05/15/2020

Treasury prices held steady last week, even as equities sank in response to growing pessimism over the economic fallout from the Covid-19 pandemic.  The 10-year Treasury yield declined by about 4 basis points week/week to yield 0.644%, while the 2-year yield plumbed its all-time lows to yield 0.147%.  The 10-year TIPS break-even rate (i.e., a proxy for projected future inflation) dropped modestly to around 109 basis points (which roughly translates to just over a 1% long-term inflation rate); while very low historically, this measure is still well above its 95 basis point level reached in mid-April, not to mention the 55 bp level reached on March 19th at the height of the crisis.

*The MBS Weekly Market Profile Report corresponds to the commentary below.*

30-year Fannie and Ginnie MBS lagged their Treasury hedge ratios last week.  Lower-coupon 30-year UMBS trailed the 10-year by around 3/8ths of a point, while fuller coupons either underperformed modestly or managed to track 10s, while Ginnie performance was mixed, with GNII 3s lagging 10s by over 12/32s while other coupons (including benchmark GNII 2.5s) trailing by around 5/32s.  The Fannie and Ginnie current coupons spread over Treasuries (which are heavily skewed toward the performance of the lowest tradeable coupon) barely budged last week.  Coupon swaps were mixed; the Fannie 2.5/2 swap contracted sharply, as Fannie 2s performed well last week, while the FN 3.5/3 swap expanded from a very tight 4/32s to close around 12/32s.  Several Ginnie dollar rolls remain quite special, with the GNII 2.5 May/June roll closing on Friday at just under 9/32s (and is offered this morning at around 10+ or the equivalent of a -1.70% financing rate).

The Fed continued to scale down its purchases to a daily average of $4.8 billion but notably began to purchase 30-year Fannie 2s, buying $240 million every day last week.  Their purchases coincided with a spike in trading activity for the coupon, as illustrated by the accompanying chart.  Click to enlarge It shows both daily trading volumes for 30-year Fannie 2s since early April (when TRACE first started breaking out trading in the coupon) as well as their share of 30-year conventional volumes.  The graph indicates that the amount of Fannie 2s being traded spiked on Thursday to around $39 billion, a huge number given that none were traded at the beginning of April; Fannie 2s as a percentage of total 30-year conventional volume also spiked to almost 30% that day.  This contrasts with the relative odd lots being traded in Ginnie II 2s, markets for which only recently began to be displayed on Tradeweb.

One other interesting development that we’ve been watching are conditions in the market for options on swaps, or “swaptions.”  These contracts trade either on Swap Execution Facilities (SEFs) or over-the-counter, and the market is unique in that traders can trade options for both a variety of swap maturities (or “tenors”) as well as for different option expirations (or “expiries”).  This is different from the market for exchange-traded Treasury futures options with which most mortgage and MBS traders are familiar since it’s difficult to buy contracts that expire more than 6-9 months in the future.  By contrast, swaptions can be traded for expiries as short as one month and as long as five years in the future for swap maturities ranging from 1-30 years.  (As an example, recent pricing is shown in the table below; note that prices are quoted in the form of “implied volatilities,” or a volatility input that equates the model values to market prices.)  While most pipeline hedgers don’t trade swaptions, the market gives some useful and telling information and clues to fixed-income traders across sectors. Click to enlarge As an example, it’s useful to look at the relationship of pricing for different expiries for the same swap tenor.  Option theory suggests that there is a term structure to the option market resulting from the different ways traders use the product to manage their exposures.  Generally, trading in short-expiry options is done to manage duration variations as market prices change (generally referenced in option theory with the Greek letter “gamma”), while longer expiries are more closely associated with the perceived general level of market volatility and referenced as “vega.”  Short-expiry options generally trade cheaper than longer expirations, except during turbulent markets where traders are struggling to manage their positions and use short-expiry options to adjust their duration exposures.  (Gamma can be interpreted as option-speak for the negative convexity of virtually all mortgages and MBS due to their embedded prepayment options.)  One way to track this phenomenon is to look at the relative prices that short- and longer-expiry options for the same swaption tenor are trading, a metric sometimes called the “gamma/vega percentage.”

The chart below highlights the close relationship between this metric (measured as the ratio of the implied volatility for the 3-month and 3-year expiries for a 10-year swap, which generally stays in a range between 90-100%) with the actual or “realized” level of volatility over time, using a 40-day trailing standard deviation of daily yield changes.  The gamma/vega percentage spiked to almost 190% at the height of the crisis (and market volatility) in March, indicating that traders were paying very high prices for short-dated options that they used to manage their gamma (i.e., convexity).  The gamma/vega percentage is useful as a way of gauging the true measure of duress in the market, as expressed by what traders are actually willing to pay to protect their positions from swings in their position’s interest rate exposures.  It’s notable that the percentage has dropped back to around 100% at the same time that realized volatilities are moving back to pre-pandemic levels last seen in mid-February. Click to enlarge We won’t publish a commentary next week…best wishes for an enjoyable and safe holiday.


About the Author: Bill Berliner

As Director of Analytics, Bill Berliner is tasked with developing new products and services, enhancing existing solutions, and helping to expand MCT’s footprint as the preeminent industry-leader in secondary marketing capabilities for lenders.

Mr. Berliner boasts more than 30 years of experience in a variety of areas within secondary marketing. He is a seasoned financial professional with extensive knowledge working with fixed income trading and structuring, research and analysis, risk management, and esoteric asset valuation.

Mr. Berliner has also written extensively on mortgages, MBS, and the capital markets. He is the co-author, with Frank Fabozzi and Anand Bhattacharya, of Mortgage-Backed Securities: Products, Structuring, and Analytical Techniques, which was named one of the top ten finance texts in 2007 by RiskBooks. He wrote and edited chapters for The Handbook of Mortgage-Backed Securities, The Handbook of Fixed-Income Securities, Securities Finance, and The Encyclopedia of Financial Models. In addition, Mr. Berliner co-authored papers published in The Journal of Structured Finance and American Securitization. He also wrote the monthly “In My View” column for Asset Securitization Report from 2008-2012.

10-Year Treasury Yield Curve

Compare this chart with the mortgage rates chart to see how the 10-year treasury and mortgage rates are correlated. Read more below to learn how mortgage rates are tied to the 10 year treasury yield. View raw data on U.S. Department of the Treasury website.

 

Mortgage Rates Today

The current MBS daily rates are shown below in this chart for 5/1 Yr ARM, Jumbo 30 Yr, FHA 30 Yr, 15 Yr Fixed, 30 Yr Fixed. Sign up for our MBS Market Commentary to receive daily mortgage news in your inbox.

About the Author

Robbie Chrisman, Head of Content, MCT

Robbie started his mortgage industry career with internships during high school and college at Peoples National Bank in Colorado, and RPM & Bay Equity in the San Francisco Bay Area. After graduating from The University of Texas at Austin with a degree in Finance in 2014, he went to work at SoFi, where he rose to Director, Capital Markets assisting in the creation of SoFi’s residential mortgage division before leaving to work for TMS in Austin, Texas. From there, he went to work for FinTech startup Riivos in San Francisco and now is the Head of Content at Mortgage Capital Trading (MCT) in San Diego.

 Join Newsletter or Follow MCT on Social Media:

Previous Weekly Market Reviews by Mortgage Capital Trading (MCT)

Sign up for daily mbs market commentary and review previous commentaries by visiting our commentary category page. Join our email list for further MBS market news, subscribe to receive educational articles, whitepapers, relevant updates, and mortgage market commentary. 

MBS Weekly Market Commentary Week Ending 2/3/23

As strong as economists may have thought the job market was, it’s even stronger. In addition to headline non-farm payrolls in January (517,000) beating estimates by around 300,000, employment numbers were revised higher for the past two months. Yes, a tight labor market is anathema to any sort of quick stop to the Federal Reserve’s rate hiking cycle, but the growth rate in average hourly earnings is declining, which will be welcome news to Fed Chair Powell and his colleagues. There exists a raging debate among economists over whether we’ll need a sharp rise in unemployment to keep inflation low.

MBS Weekly Market Commentary Week Ending 1/27/23

Even with the most aggressive pace of rate hikes in over a generation during the past year, recent data suggests that there’s still a path to a “soft landing” for the Federal Reserve. The U.S. economy posted the kind of mild slowdown in the last quarter of 2022 that the Fed wants to see as it attempts to tame inflation without choking off growth. Gross domestic product beat expectations to rise at a 2.9% annualized pace, down from 3.2% in the third quarter and a long way from a recession.

MBS Weekly Market Commentary Week Ending 1/20/23

Have you heard? Inflation was so 2022. All jokes aside, after we learned last week that U.S. inflation cooled for the sixth consecutive month (the consumer price index dropped 0.1% in December compared to the month prior), expectations are now that the Federal Reserve is likely to downshift rate hikes to 25 BPS going forward, beginning at next month’s FOMC meeting.

MBS Weekly Market Commentary Week Ending 1/13/23

Pay attention to the bond market rather than the Fed. That’s what I’m hearing as we learned this week that inflation continued to ease in December, though much focus was also on Wells’ exit from the correspondent space and its ramifications. The headline CPI (-0.1% month-over-month, +6.5% year-over-year) posted the slowest inflation rate in more than a year and core inflation (+5.7% year-over-year), which excludes food and energy, also posted the smallest advance in a year.

MBS Weekly Market Commentary Week Ending 1/6/23

While it’s back to business as usual, it was a fairly quiet week as we settled into the new year. Fast inflation and high interest rates dominated the narrative and upended markets across the world last year. When the dust settled, 10-year Treasuries were 200+ BPS higher than the start of the year, the curve inverted in a bearish fashion faster and farther than ever, implied volume spiked, and mortgage spreads were pushed from stubbornly rich to suddenly cheap. The result was an entire trade-able universe moving out of the money, originations grinding to a halt, and duration becoming a function of illiquid trade flows.