The general consensus is for slower U.S. economic growth in 2019, although few observers are predicting a recession this year.
– Excerpt from the Economic and MBS Outlook 2019 Whitepaper
In this “Economic and Mortgage Backed Security (MBS) Market Outlook 2019” whitepaper by Bill Berliner, Director of Analytics at Mortgage Capital Trading (MCT), Mr. Berliner explores the current events and trends that have the greatest power to impact the market in 2019.
Mr. Berliner utilizes illustrative charts to discuss the impact of moderating economic growth on interest rates, the mobility of lending volumes, and trends that may influence the mortgage and housing markets. Explore the answers to important secondary market questions such as:
- What changes to interest rates are expected for 2019?
- What influence might those rate changes have on lender purchase and refinance volumes?
- How much would lending rates need to decline in order to spur a significant pickup in refi activity?
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About The Author – Bill Berliner
Mr. Berliner has more than 30 years of experience in the mortgage and MBS markets as an analyst and trader. He has extensive working knowledge of mortgage and MBS trading, hedging, structuring, valuation, and operations. Prior to joining MCT, he worked in risk management and systems development with Thomson Reuters, Kinecta Federal Credit Union, and Manhattan Capital Markets, and also owned his own consulting practice. He served as the head of Trade Strategies for Countrywide Securities until 2008, and also held senior positions with Nikko Securities and Bear Stearns. He has written extensively on the markets, co-authoring two editions of a textbook on MBS with Frank Fabozzi and Anand Bhattacharya, and has co-authored almost 20 book chapters and published articles.
Mr. Berliner holds BA and MBA degrees from Rutgers University. He is an active member of the CFA Society of Los Angeles, and is the society’s resident expert on MBS.
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