MBS Market Commentary

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Examples of Mortgage Capital Trading Daily Market Commentary

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This daily commentary is a quick and digestible insight into our perspective of recent events, rate changes, presentations, and understanding of the MBS market today.

Read below for our weekly mortgage market commentaries that are published publicly online each week. The daily mortgage market updates are only sent to our email subscribers.

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Previous Weekly Mortgage Backed Securities Market Commentaries & Industry News

Now available publicly online, read our most recent weekly mortgage market commentary articles, and take a glimpse of our previous mortgage commentaries. Join our newsletter to receive MBS daily commentary and check back to our website each week for more mortgage industry news.

MBS Weekly Market Commentary Week Ending 12/2/22

MBS Weekly Market Commentary Week Ending 12/2/22

ederal Reserve Chair Powell tried to walk the tightrope between stressing that the central bank’s inflation fight is far from over and telegraphing that policymakers could downshift from their rapid pace of tightening as soon as the December 13-14 FOMC meeting. The Fed’s publicly preferred measure of inflation, the PCE Core Price Index, which excludes food and energy, was expected to increase 5% year-over-year, but increased 6% (not exactly a downward trend). And the economy added 263,000 jobs in November, which was better than 200,000 estimates as wage inflation continues to increase; average hourly earnings rose 0.6%, faster than in October. 

MBS Weekly Market Commentary Week Ending 11/18/22

MBS Weekly Market Commentary Week Ending 11/18/22

As we enter the holiday season, everyone in the mortgage industry has the same problems: lower volume, lower pricing and gain on sale margins. With less emphasis on growing volume, due to a lack of borrower demand from currently high mortgage rates and a lack of seller demand from being locked into low mortgage rates, a much greater focus for companies in the mortgage industry has been on lowering costs and increasing profitability.

MBS Weekly Market Commentary Week Ending 11/4/22

MBS Weekly Market Commentary Week Ending 11/4/22

We were reminded this week that the U.S. labor market is still on solid footing, aiding to speculation that the Federal Reserve will continue its aggressive rate hiking path beyond Wednesday’s 75 BPS rate increase. Today, we learned that October payrolls beat expectations (the headline figure came in at 261k, and there was a positive back month revision of 29k), which further complicates Fed’s job and lowers the odds of the mythical “soft landing.”

MBS Weekly Market Commentary Week Ending 10/28/22

MBS Weekly Market Commentary Week Ending 10/28/22

We still seem to be a ways off from the point an actual FOMC voter says “let’s wait and see” when it comes to hiking rates. Until that occurs, bond prices continue to fall and the Fed (and others) will continue to incur paper losses on massive bond holdings accumulated during pandemic rescue efforts.

MBS Weekly Market Commentary Week Ending 10/21/22

MBS Weekly Market Commentary Week Ending 10/21/22

We are beginning to see the Fed’s policy moves take hold, with slowing productivity growth, marginal gains in labor force participation, and home builder sentiment continuing to drop as higher interest rate costs price out a large number of prospective buyers.

MBS Weekly Market Commentary Week Ending 10/14/22

MBS Weekly Market Commentary Week Ending 10/14/22

The pace of the Fed’s rate hikes and winding down of QE4 have introduced heightened volatility to the bond market. The Fed has raised its benchmark interest rates five times this year, including three consecutive 75 BPS rate hikes, increasing the cost of borrowing money in the hope that more expensive loans will result in less investment, less business expansion, fewer jobs, lower pay, and ultimately less inflation.

MBS Weekly Market Commentary Week Ending 10/7/22

MBS Weekly Market Commentary Week Ending 10/7/22

Interesting (read: disheartening) times in this rollercoaster of a bond market, huh? There’s the highest volatility in at least five years, colossal bid-ask spreads, scant liquidity in coupons above par, falling bond prices that have banks sitting on their hands, and a central bank that is still uncertain on how long and hawkish it plans to remain in tightening mode (don’t forget fear of a global recession, escalating geopolitical tensions thanks to Russia’s war on Ukraine, the UK’s tax-cut fiasco, and the potential for further defaults by developing nations). A year ago, 2-year Treasuries yielded 0.2%. They were 1% in January of this year, but today yield more than 4%.

MBS Weekly Market Commentary Week Ending 9/23/22

MBS Weekly Market Commentary Week Ending 9/23/22

The phrase “Don’t fight the Fed” was first introduced in the 70’s (a lovely time for inflation lovers) and for most of the last few decades, the phrase meant that the Fed has the market’s back and investors are rewarded for keeping their feet on the gas pedal as the Fed injects liquidity, dampens volatility, and drives outsized returns. But fighting the Fed cuts both ways, and Fed officials are now intent on taming prices, even though the economy is already in a technical recession. Investors have been forced to consider their positions accordingly.

MBS Weekly Market Commentary Week Ending 9/16/22

MBS Weekly Market Commentary Week Ending 9/16/22

There are the unfortunate costs of reducing inflation (higher interest rates, slower growth, and softer labor market conditions) that will bring some pain to households and businesses, but a failure to restore price stability would mean far greater economic pain. Markets have interpreted recent Fed comments as: “We are going to raise rates higher and keep them there longer than the market is anticipating. People now understand the seriousness of our commitment to getting inflation back down to 2%. If we have a hard landing and cause a recession, so be it.”

MBS Weekly Market Commentary Week Ending 9/9/22

MBS Weekly Market Commentary Week Ending 9/9/22

This year’s run up the coupon stack has led to the destruction of both purchase supply and refinance demand, which has drastically reduced prepayment activity. The Fed’s QE4 created a refinance bonanza in 2020 and 2021, but with the Fed leaving the MBS purchase space next week for the foreseeable future, that party is over. The MCT Review this week examines August prepayment speeds that were released yesterday and what to expect for the remainder of the year.

MBS Weekly Market Commentary Week Ending 9/2/22

MBS Weekly Market Commentary Week Ending 9/2/22

In addition to raising the overnight Fed funds rate, the Fed is exiting the MBS and security purchase space as it wraps up QE4. The Fed will reduce its asset holdings by not reinvesting the funds received from maturing securities into new securities as it has been doing over the past two years. The MCT Review this week examines the Fed’s plans and the ultimate impact on a volatile bond market.

MBS Weekly Market Commentary Week Ending 8/26/22

MBS Weekly Market Commentary Week Ending 8/26/22

This week’s commentary discusses market preparation and reaction to Fed Chairman Powell’s speech in Jackson Hole. As the Fed puts the brakes on the economy, the central bank is willing to let unemployment go up as a trade for getting inflation under control. Rate hikes are expected to continue as the Fed prioritizes driving down inflation rather than economic growth. Read the rest of this week’s market commentary for more information on the Fed and the MBS market.