Market Commentary

MBS Weekly Market Commentary Week Ending 5/31/19

A lot has changed since our last update in mid-May. The 10-year Treasury yield closed on Friday at 2.125%, 27 basis points lower than its close on 5/17 and more than 110 bps lower than at the cycle highs in early November. View MBS Weekly Market Profile Report *The...

MBS Weekly Market Commentary Week Ending 5/10/19

Treasuries rallied last week as the U.S.-China relationship deteriorated amid a breakdown in trade talks. The 10-year Treasury closed just over the 2.45% level, with the rest of the curve (except the 30-year bond) moving pretty much in concert.

MBS Weekly Market Commentary Week Ending 5/3/19

Treasury yields moderated a bit at the end of a week punctuated by a Fed meeting and the April employment report. The 10-year yield ended the week at 2.526%, just under 3 basis points higher than where it closed on April 26th. View MBS Weekly Market Profile Report...

MBS Weekly Market Commentary Week Ending 4/26/19

Treasury yields moved in a narrow band last week, with intermediates maturities lagging both the short and long end of the curve. The reshuffling of the curve left the 2-5 spread inverted by less than a basis point, while the 2-10 year spread moved wider by roughly 4 basis points.

MBS Weekly Market Commentary Week Ending 4/18/19

Treasury yields moved in a narrow band last week, with intermediates maturities lagging both the short and long end of the curve. The reshuffling of the curve left the 2-5 spread inverted by less than a basis point, while the 2-10 year spread moved wider by roughly 4...

MBS Weekly Market Commentary Week Ending 4/5/19

Treasury yields ended the week higher, although the 10-year yield managed to close below 2.50%. The yield curve maintained its conspicuous “bowed” shape, with yields on the 3- and 5-year notes below that of the 2-year, leaving the 2-5yr spread slight inverted (-3.5 basis points) while the 2-5-10 butterfly decreased by another 2.5 bps to end at -22.5 bps.

MBS Weekly Market Commentary Week Ending 3/29/19

Treasury yields declined on the week, leaving the 10-year yield at its lowest level since December 2017. The belly of the curve underperformed, as the 2-year note and 30-year bond both had the best weekly performance.

MBS Weekly Market Commentary Week Ending 3/22/19

Last week’s Federal Reserve Open Market Committee (OMC) meeting caused a huge shift in bond market sentiment, pushing Treasury note and bond yields sharply lower while leaving money market rates (i.e., maturities less than one year) virtually unchanged.

MBS Weekly Market Commentary Week Ending 3/15/19

Treasuries closed the week with a small rally that left the 10-year yield below 2.60% for the first time since early January. The yield curve flattened modestly, with the 2-10 year spread about 1.5 basis points tighter at +15 while the 2-5 year spread also flattened (inverted) by another basis point to -4.3 bps.

MBS Weekly Market Commentary Week Ending 3/8/19

Treasury yields dropped on the week, reflecting signs of economic weakness on the horizon and a weak February employment report. View MBS Weekly Market Profile Report *The MBS Weekly Market Profile Report corresponds to the commentary below.* Treasury yields dropped...

MBS Weekly Market Commentary Week Ending 10/26/18

Treasury rallied again last week, pushing the yield on the 10-year note to 3.076% on Friday, its lowest level since October 2nd. The rally was spurred by another bout of volatility in the equity markets, as well as nervousness caused by a rash of mailbombs sent to U.S. political figures. The rally in intermediate and long-term Treasuries served to flatten most of the yield curve; the 2-10 spread contracted by about 2 basis points to +27, although the 10-30 spread widened by 5 basis points to +23.5.