San Diego, CA – November 10, 2026 – Mortgage Capital Trading® (MCT®), the de facto leader in innovative mortgage capital markets technology, announced release of its November Lock Volume Index, reflecting October’s lock volume data.
Total lock volume declined 16.13% month over month in October, with purchase locks down 14.51%, rate/term refinances down 34.71%, and cash-out refinances down 19.58%. Year over year, total volume was down 38.67%, purchase fell 22.92%, rate/term refinances dropped 88.43%, and cash-out refinances declined 42.76%.
The Federal Reserve held its benchmark rate at 3.75% to 4% on October 28, and Freddie Mac’s weekly 30-year average remained above 7% throughout the month.
“With the strong jobs report for October we will likely see a hike in December. Even if we get bad jobs numbers for November before the December meeting and inflation is still trending the way it is, the Fed will lean towards hiking rates,” said Andrew Rhodes, Head of Trading at MCT. “If inflation continues to persist, they’ll have to raise rates and try to slow the economy, which will end up hurting jobs. It’s a delicate balance that the Fed has to navigate in the fourth and first quarter.”
Download MCT November Index Report
MCT’s Rate Lock Index shows the gap between builder-financed buyers and everyone else remains wide.
As of November 2, builders locked purchase loans at a weighted-average note rate of 5.83%, compared with 7.10% for non-builders, a difference of more than 1.25 points.
Lock Volume for October by Transaction Type
“The concessions builders are paying right now are primarily due to the increase in property value they’ve had,” Rhodes said. “They can take some of the gains from higher appraisals and land values and put that into a concession to help subsidize lower rates. Until you see that value erode, I don’t think you will see that spread change.”
If property values begin to fall, builders could pull back on concessions and move closer to parity with retail pricing, Rhodes added. “They are always going to have some capacity to provide an incentive just given the operational structure of the business.”
MCT remains committed to delivering expert guidance and data-driven insights. MCT’s Lock Volume Index presents a snapshot of rate lock volume activity in the residential mortgage industry broken out by lock type (purchase, rate/term refinance, and cash out refinance) across a broad diversity of lenders (e.g., sizes, products/services offered, business models) from MCT’s national footprint.
For over two decades, MCT has been a leading source of innovation for the mortgage secondary market. Melding deep subject matter expertise with a passion for emerging technologies and clients, MCT is the de facto leader in innovative mortgage capital markets technology. From architecting modern best execution loan sales to launching the most successful and advanced marketplace for mortgage-related assets, lenders, investors, and network partners all benefit from MCT’s stewardship. MCT’s technology and know-how continue to revolutionize how mortgage assets are priced, locked, hedged, traded, and valued – offering clients the tools to perform under any market condition.
For more information, visit https://mct-trading.com/ or call (619) 543-5111.
Media Contact:
Ian Miller
Chief Marketing Officer
Mortgage Capital Trading
619-618-7855
pr@mctrade.net
