San Diego, CA – October 6, 2026 – Mortgage Capital Trading® (MCT®), the de facto leader in innovative mortgage capital markets technology, announced the release of its October Lock Volume Indices, reflecting September’s lock volume data, a month dominated by a bond selloff and the Fed’s first rate hike since 2023.
Total lock volume declined 10.15% month over month in September, with purchase locks down 9.85%. Year over year, total volume was down 27.25%, while purchase declined 11.86%.
The pullback followed a volatile month in the bond market. The 10-year Treasury climbed more than half a point in September, its steepest monthly rise and highest level since 2022, while the Fed raised its benchmark rate a quarter point to 3.75%-4.00% in a unanimous vote on September 16.
“September was a three-point selloff in UMBS6 coupons, and that pushes everything up the coupon stack,” said Andrew Rhodes, Head of Trading at MCT. “We’re seeing more trades in the UM7 coupon now, with rates pushed higher by market volatility, the geopolitical situation, and inflation expectations.”
Download MCT October Indices Report
Rhodes doesn’t expect September’s hike to be the Fed’s last of the year. The committee’s guidance points to one more quarter-point move before year-end, and after the Non-Farm Payroll number from September it looks like that will be the case.
“If there’s more persistence to inflation and the Fed needs to be more aggressive, they’d have to hike in both October and December,” he said.
Lock Volume for September by Transaction Type
“But, considering the minimal job growth in September that puts the Fed in a tough spot to raise rates in October. Currently market expectations are heavily weighted towards a pause in October with an increase in December. Job growth still feels like it’s playing a secondary role to inflation given the geopolitical climate though.”
Rhodes closed on an optimistic note. “The mortgage market is cyclical,” he said. “We go through periods of high rates and low rates, and it always comes back around. Even elevated rates eventually become the new normal, and people find where they need to be. I’m hoping we settle somewhere in the sixes rather than the sevens, but I think rates stay elevated as long as we have geopolitical turmoil and persistent inflation expectations driving the market.”
MCT remains committed to delivering expert guidance and data-driven insights. MCT’s Lock Volume Indices present a snapshot of rate lock volume activity in the residential mortgage industry broken out by lock type (purchase, rate/term refinance, and cash out refinance) across a broad diversity of lenders (e.g., sizes, products/services offered, business models) from MCT’s national footprint.
For over two decades, MCT has been a leading source of innovation for the mortgage secondary market. Melding deep subject matter expertise with a passion for emerging technologies and clients, MCT is the de facto leader in innovative mortgage capital markets technology. From architecting modern best execution loan sales to launching the most successful and advanced marketplace for mortgage-related assets, lenders, investors, and network partners all benefit from MCT’s stewardship. MCT’s technology and know-how continue to revolutionize how mortgage assets are priced, locked, hedged, traded, and valued – offering clients the tools to perform under any market condition.
For more information, visit https://mct-trading.com/ or call (619) 543-5111.
Media Contact:
Ian Miller
Chief Marketing Officer
Mortgage Capital Trading
619-618-7855
pr@mctrade.net
