San Diego, CA – July 14, 2026 – Mortgage Capital Trading® (MCT®), the de facto leader in innovative mortgage capital markets technology, announced the release of its July Lock Volume Indices, reflecting June’s lock volume data.
Month over month, total lock volume declined 2.88%, with purchase locks down 1.83%, rate/term refinance volume falling 14.42%, and cash-out refinances off 3.85%. Year over year, total volume fell 1.65%, purchase declined 2.67%, cash-out refinances slipped 0.9%, and rate/term refinances rose 13.04%.
“The spring and summer buying window largely came and went as a missed opportunity,” said Andrew Rhodes, Head of Trading at MCT. “Rates spiked right when buyers historically hit the market, and that pushed a lot of people away from new housing.”
Purchase activity, while slightly softer month over month, continued to anchor the broader index. “Purchase has been fairly consistent and has definitely been supporting overall originations,” Rhodes said. “From a year-to-date standpoint, originations are doing reasonably well. But continuing to see some slight deterioration makes sense, and we will likely keep seeing that unless there is a meaningful change in the rate environment.”
Download MCT July Indices Report
Rhodes is tracking a significant shift in communication strategy under Chair Kevin Warsh. Warsh cut his first FOMC policy statement from 341 words to 130 and removed all forward guidance. “He wants to limit the Fed’s involvement in driving the markets,” Rhodes said, “but I think reducing the information is actually going to increase speculation and volatility; the market has a lot less to go off of.”
Lock Volume for June by Transaction Type
Rhodes noted that Warsh appears to be embracing a wisdom-of-the-crowd philosophy, treating real-time market prices as more reliable signals than expert forecasts, and returning Fed communication to the more opaque style of the Greenspan era.
Market-implied probability of a rate hike sits near 52% for the September FOMC meeting and between 70% and 80% for December. “There is more pressure right now for rates to go up than down,” Rhodes said. “A lot of a potential hike is already priced in, but when it actually happens, it could still move the market slightly higher.”
Geopolitical developments are adding further uncertainty to the rate outlook. Recent escalation involving Iran has raised the prospect of higher energy costs, which could feed into inflation and influence Federal Reserve rate decisions. “More uncertainty weighs on the market,” Rhodes said. “That is what has been driving the volatility we saw last week.”
MCT remains committed to delivering expert guidance and data-driven insights. MCT’s Lock Volume Indices present a snapshot of rate lock volume activity in the residential mortgage industry broken out by lock type (purchase, rate/term refinance, and cash out refinance) across a broad diversity of lenders (e.g., sizes, products/services offered, business models) from MCT’s national footprint.
About MCT:
For over two decades, MCT has been a leading source of innovation for the mortgage secondary market. Melding deep subject matter expertise with a passion for emerging technologies and clients, MCT is the de facto leader in innovative mortgage capital markets technology. From architecting modern best execution loan sales to launching the most successful and advanced marketplace for mortgage-related assets, lenders, investors, and network partners all benefit from MCT’s stewardship. MCT’s technology and know-how continue to revolutionize how mortgage assets are priced, locked, hedged, traded, and valued – offering clients the tools to perform under any market condition.
For more information, visit https://mct-trading.com/ or call (619) 543-5111.
Media Contact:
Ian Miller
Chief Marketing Officer
Mortgage Capital Trading
619-618-7855
pr@mctrade.net
