San Diego, CA – March 10, 2026 – Mortgage Capital Trading® (MCT®), the de facto leader in innovative mortgage capital markets technology, today released its March MCT Lock Volume Indices, showing that lock volume increased 28% month-over-month as mortgage rates briefly fell into the high-5% range, driving renewed borrower activity.
The decline in rates marked the first time in several years mortgage rates reached the high-5% range, prompting increased borrower engagement across both purchase and refinance transactions. Mortgage demand continues to demonstrate strong sensitivity to rate movements, with even modest declines in rates contributing to higher lock activity.
Rates have since moved back into the low-6% range, reflecting increased market volatility tied to geopolitical tensions, inflation concerns particularly surrounding energy markets, and shifting expectations for Federal Reserve policy. Despite these headwinds, improving borrower acceptance of current rate levels continues to support market activity heading into the spring homebuying season.
Download MCT March Indices Report
A weaker labor market has also added complexity to the economic outlook. A recent nonfarm payroll report showing a loss of 92,000 jobs has intensified debate around the Federal Reserve’s policy path as officials balance persistent inflation pressures with signs of labor market softening. Current market expectations suggest the first potential rate cut could occur in September, depending on incoming economic data.
“The primary driver behind the increase in lock volume was the brief move into the high-5% range, which marked the first time in several years borrowers had seen mortgage rates with a ‘5’ handle,” said Andrew Rhodes, Senior Director and Head of Trading at MCT.
Lock Volume for February by Transaction Type
“Mortgage demand remains highly rate sensitive, and even small improvements in rates can quickly bring borrowers back into the market. While rates have since moved back into the low-6% range amid geopolitical uncertainty and inflation concerns, we’re also seeing borrowers gradually adjust to the current rate environment as expectations normalize.”
Year-over-year comparisons also showed stronger lock activity, although the increases are partially attributable to relatively low production levels during the same period last year. Refinance activity accounted for a notable share of the growth, reflecting borrowers taking advantage of improved rate conditions earlier in the period.
MCT remains committed to delivering expert guidance and data-driven insights. MCT’s Lock Volume Indices present a snapshot of rate lock volume activity in the residential mortgage industry broken out by lock type (purchase, rate/term refinance, and cash out refinance) across a broad diversity of lenders (e.g., sizes, products/services offered, business models) from MCT’s national footprint.
About MCT:
For over two decades, MCT has been a leading source of innovation for the mortgage secondary market. Melding deep subject matter expertise with a passion for emerging technologies and clients, MCT is the de facto leader in innovative mortgage capital markets technology. From architecting modern best execution loan sales to launching the most successful and advanced marketplace for mortgage-related assets, lenders, investors, and network partners all benefit from MCT’s stewardship. MCT’s technology and know-how continue to revolutionize how mortgage assets are priced, locked, hedged, traded, and valued – offering clients the tools to perform under any market condition.
For more information, visit https://mct-trading.com/ or call (619) 543-5111.
Media Contact:
Ian Miller
Chief Marketing Officer
Mortgage Capital Trading
619-618-7855
pr@mctrade.net
