MBS Weekly Market Commentary Week Ending 9/23/22

Fed Goes Hawkish & Urges “Risk-On Mode” for Investors

Have you heard the good word(s) of Jerome Powell? U.S. banks will now charge an overnight rate between 3.00% and 3.25% when loaning deposits to another bank, 75 BPS more than over the past six weeks. I’m pretty certain you’ve also heard the phrase “Don’t fight the Fed.” The phrase was first published in the 70s (a lovely time period for inflation lovers) in a book called Winning on Wall Street. For most of the last few decades, the phrase meant that the Fed has the market’s back and keeping one’s portfolio in a risk-on mode will keep it on the right side of history.

Fighting the Fed cuts both ways, but investors have historically been rewarded for keeping their foot on the gas pedal as the Fed injects liquidity, dampens volatility, and drives outsized returns. Easy financial conditions like we saw in the wake of the liquidity shock at the start of the COVID-19 pandemic have been largely responsible for creating long and strong bull markets. Most Federal Reserve officials since the Great Recession have displayed a willingness to ease monetary conditions with little hesitation while displaying extreme caution to tighten.

Despite inflation above 8% and Fed officials intent on taming prices, bond yields, equities, and credit spreads all rallied this summer. But that has changed over the last two weeks with a self-purported hawkish Fed. The dovish past contrasts with the hawkish present: it’s unusual for the Fed to tighten so aggressively at a time when the economy is already in a technical recession. Investors have been forced to consider their positions accordingly.

Fed’s Monetary Restriction Strategy Causes More Volatility 

The Fed’s commitment to restricting monetary conditions comes at a time of divergent data for the U.S. economy, which has caused further volatility. Retail sales were up 0.3% month-over-month in August, but the prior month was negative.

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Without significantly boosting real interest rates, which are adjusted for some gauge of inflation, we are still short of neutral policy. The Fed Funds rate is a nominal interest rate which doesn’t take into account inflation. By any measurement, with core inflation running around 5% and the Fed Funds rate at 3%, real interest rates are still negative.

The most recent industrial production declined, but first-time unemployment claims at historically low levels remind us that the labor market remains strong. Additionally, supply chains continue improving. The economy does seem well positioned to handle tighter monetary policy, but the Fed and other central banks did a poor job of predicting the surge in inflation last year. So, what reason is there to expect that they have it figured out now?

We are still at the start of this tightening cycle. While the Fed will likely be very cautious in continuing to remove monetary accommodation, officials have made it clear that the punch bowl will not be spiked again anytime soon. Fed Chair Powell has committed to a “bad cop” routine, though investors are pricing the fed funds rate to top out near 4.50% and the first rate cut to be enacted by May of next year. He has pivoted to the belated-but-commendable stance of “price stability is the responsibility of the Fed and serves as the bedrock of an economy that will not function without it.” The front-end of the yield curve has been pressing toward terminal Fed Funds targets, which should continue for the foreseeable future.

In the meantime, Fed purchases are at an end and private investors must now take down that supply and will only do so at a reasonable price. The question of active Fed MBS sales continues to come up, but Fed Chair Powell said MBS sales are not something he expects in the near term. He added that runoff would first need to be well underway and we are ” not close” to that point yet. Nothing from the Fed events this week changes the view that MBS sales will be, at the earliest, a 2023 event. So it is likely they will continue to be slow in applying the brakes and they will “monitor the situation,” as they love to say.

Higher Interest Rates Contribute to Large MSR Spreads

Roll off from the Fed’s holdings over the last few months is just shy of $19 billion monthly, which is far below the stated cap of $35 billion per month. With prepayment speeds falling and so much of the mortgage universe out-of-the-money, it is hard to see roll off coming anywhere near the cap. The economic situation makes mortgages, in my opinion, a far less risky asset class than corporate bonds.

The rise in interest rates this year has caused MBS spreads, the difference between the mortgage rate and a Treasury of similar maturity, to widen considerably compared to what has been seen over the past half-decade. Wide spreads means that mortgage rates are high relative to underlying interest rates. Until the Fed gets toward a terminal overnight rate, we are going to see increased volatility. With headwinds in the market, it helps to have actionable recommendations to protect your business and pipeline. Did you attend our webinar: Improve Profitability to Counter Market Headwinds? Phil Rasori, Justin Grant, and Andrew Rhodes explained how MCT is helping clients Bring BPS Back and improve profitability to counter market headwinds. Additionally, view our hedge advisory calculator to learn how MCT is helping client profitability with unique software and services.

10-Year Treasury Yield Curve

Compare this chart with the mortgage rates chart to see how the 10-year treasury and mortgage rates are correlated. Read more below to learn how mortgage rates are tied to the 10 year treasury yield. View raw data on U.S. Department of the Treasury website.

 

Mortgage Rates Today

The current MBS daily rates are shown below in this chart for 5/1 Yr ARM, Jumbo 30 Yr, FHA 30 Yr, 15 Yr Fixed, 30 Yr Fixed. Sign up for our MBS Market Commentary to receive daily mortgage news in your inbox.

About the Author

Robbie Chrisman, Head of Content, MCT

Robbie started his mortgage industry career with internships during high school and college at Peoples National Bank in Colorado, and RPM & Bay Equity in the San Francisco Bay Area. After graduating from The University of Texas at Austin with a degree in Finance in 2014, he went to work at SoFi, where he rose to Director, Capital Markets assisting in the creation of SoFi’s residential mortgage division before leaving to work for TMS in Austin, Texas. From there, he went to work for FinTech startup Riivos in San Francisco and now is the Head of Content at Mortgage Capital Trading (MCT) in San Diego.

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Previous Weekly Market Reviews by Mortgage Capital Trading (MCT)

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MBS Weekly Market Commentary Week Ending 9/16/22

There are the unfortunate costs of reducing inflation (higher interest rates, slower growth, and softer labor market conditions) that will bring some pain to households and businesses, but a failure to restore price stability would mean far greater economic pain. Markets have interpreted recent Fed comments as: “We are going to raise rates higher and keep them there longer than the market is anticipating. People now understand the seriousness of our commitment to getting inflation back down to 2%. If we have a hard landing and cause a recession, so be it.”

MBS Weekly Market Commentary Week Ending 9/9/22

This year’s run up the coupon stack has led to the destruction of both purchase supply and refinance demand, which has drastically reduced prepayment activity. The Fed’s QE4 created a refinance bonanza in 2020 and 2021, but with the Fed leaving the MBS purchase space next week for the foreseeable future, that party is over. The MCT Review this week examines August prepayment speeds that were released yesterday and what to expect for the remainder of the year.

MBS Weekly Market Commentary Week Ending 9/2/22

In addition to raising the overnight Fed funds rate, the Fed is exiting the MBS and security purchase space as it wraps up QE4. The Fed will reduce its asset holdings by not reinvesting the funds received from maturing securities into new securities as it has been doing over the past two years. The MCT Review this week examines the Fed’s plans and the ultimate impact on a volatile bond market.

MBS Weekly Market Commentary Week Ending 8/26/22

This week’s commentary discusses market preparation and reaction to Fed Chairman Powell’s speech in Jackson Hole. As the Fed puts the brakes on the economy, the central bank is willing to let unemployment go up as a trade for getting inflation under control. Rate hikes are expected to continue as the Fed prioritizes driving down inflation rather than economic growth. Read the rest of this week’s market commentary for more information on the Fed and the MBS market.

MBS Weekly Market Commentary Week Ending 8/19/22

Every week the mortgage industry has new headlines. This week saw talk of Wells Fargo scaling back its mortgage division (possibly greatly exaggerated), MBA mortgage applications dropping to a 22-year low, and U.S. retail sales resiliently remaining flat despite a drop in gasoline prices, though the biggest story was Ginnie Mae and FHFA releasing jointly updated seller/servicer requirements.

MBS Weekly Market Commentary Week Ending 8/12/22

Last week’s U.S. employment figures pointed to a continued strengthening job market while this week saw a spate of softer-than-expected inflation data, but the 10-year Treasury yield closed each week at the same level. Mortgage rates, however, whipsawed around by 0.25-0.375 percent over the last several trading days, exemplifying the basis risk of hedging a pipeline with U.S. Treasuries.