MBS MARKET COMMENTARY

MCT’s Director of Analytics, Bill Berliner, writes a weekly summary of movements in the secondary market. The analysis includes an in-depth view of treasury yields, mortgage backed securities, note rates and more.

View the MBS Market Profile Descriptions and Definitions for a detailed explanation of the weekly report then join our newsletter to receive the MBS weekly market commentary in your inbox every Monday.

MBS Weekly Market Commentary Week Ending 6/14/19

Treasury yields did not change much last week, despite some volatility that briefly took the 10-year yield to 2.15% before closing at 2.08%. The yield curve configuration was also little changed, with the 2-10 year spread moving out by about ½ basis point while 2-5s inverted by a basis point and the 5-30 spread widened by about 3 bps. The TIPS (inflation-protected) break-even rates, which serve as proxies for expected inflation, declined noticeably last week, with the 5-year break-even contracting by 14 basis points despite a slight uptick in the CPI.

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MBS Weekly Market Commentary Week Ending 5/31/19

A lot has changed since our last update in mid-May. The 10-year Treasury yield closed on Friday at 2.125%, 27 basis points lower than its close on 5/17 and more than 110 bps lower than at the cycle highs in early November. View MBS Weekly Market Profile Report *The...

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MBS Weekly Market Commentary Week Ending 5/10/19

Treasuries rallied last week as the U.S.-China relationship deteriorated amid a breakdown in trade talks. The 10-year Treasury closed just over the 2.45% level, with the rest of the curve (except the 30-year bond) moving pretty much in concert.

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MBS Weekly Market Commentary Week Ending 5/3/19

Treasury yields moderated a bit at the end of a week punctuated by a Fed meeting and the April employment report. The 10-year yield ended the week at 2.526%, just under 3 basis points higher than where it closed on April 26th. View MBS Weekly Market Profile Report...

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MBS Weekly Market Commentary Week Ending 4/26/19

Treasury yields moved in a narrow band last week, with intermediates maturities lagging both the short and long end of the curve. The reshuffling of the curve left the 2-5 spread inverted by less than a basis point, while the 2-10 year spread moved wider by roughly 4 basis points.

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MBS Weekly Market Commentary Week Ending 4/18/19

Treasury yields moved in a narrow band last week, with intermediates maturities lagging both the short and long end of the curve. The reshuffling of the curve left the 2-5 spread inverted by less than a basis point, while the 2-10 year spread moved wider by roughly 4...

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MBS Weekly Market Commentary Week Ending 4/5/19

Treasury yields ended the week higher, although the 10-year yield managed to close below 2.50%. The yield curve maintained its conspicuous “bowed” shape, with yields on the 3- and 5-year notes below that of the 2-year, leaving the 2-5yr spread slight inverted (-3.5 basis points) while the 2-5-10 butterfly decreased by another 2.5 bps to end at -22.5 bps.

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MBS Weekly Market Commentary Week Ending 3/22/19

Last week’s Federal Reserve Open Market Committee (OMC) meeting caused a huge shift in bond market sentiment, pushing Treasury note and bond yields sharply lower while leaving money market rates (i.e., maturities less than one year) virtually unchanged.

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